State Picks; Key Stats

#2 posting 11.6.2006
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MN STATE TOURANMENT PREVIEW
AAA
The Lake has three entrants in this year's tournament and Chaska will be the favorite.
The Hawks open with Wayzata at 9 am, but Chaska already has a win over the Trojans in the Alexandria tournament. Both teams have strong fbso games. Pick Chaska
The other 9 am game has Moorhead squaring off with Eagan. Eagan beat Cretin-Derham Hall in the 3 finals, after losing to CDH late in October. Eagan is on a roll. Pick Eagan.
Marshall takes on Lakeville North in the 11 am game. Both teams saw each other in the Marshall tournament back in September. LN has a few more attack weapons than Marshall who features Amanda Beekman. Pick: Lakeville North
The other 11 game is Blaine and Hibbing. Hibbing has tons of state tournament experience, but Blaine survived the tough five game battle with Andover. Pick Blaine

Semis: Chaska and Lakeville North. In an all Lake Finals Pick: Chaska

Before the sections started a called 7 of the 8 here because I didn't pick anyone in 8.

AA
St. Cloud Cathedral opens with Jordan at 5 pm. Jordan looked very strong when I saw them at Apple Valley. Pick: Jordan
Pipestone faces mystery team Montevideo that has bee flying under the radar most of the year. Pipestone plays in the rough and tumble Southwest conference and most of their losses are to power teams during weekend tournament play. Pick: Pipestone, they have been there
Virginia tussles with LeSueur-Henderson in the 7 pm contest. LSH is the second Minnesota River team to make it to the big show. That is a very good conference as four teams were in the finals of their respective sections. Pick: LSH
and it is a shame the final game had to occur in the quarters but defending champ Lake of the Woods takes on perennial power Stewartville. LOW is without their coach in this postseason. How long can LOW keep producing key wins on the emotion of trying to win for a coach they feel has been too severely punished? Stewartville is a squad used to the big events. Pick Stewartville.

In the semis: Jordan; Stewartville. Finals: I like Jordan

My presections here slightly above .500 with 5 of 8 correct. The three that I stumbled on were 2, 3, and 8.

A
Central Christian plays Bertha-Hewitt in the 1 pm contest. Central Christian knows the feel of the bright lights, and plays a tougher schedule. Pick Central Christian
Meadow Creek takes on Minneota in probably the best match up in another unfortunate pairing early. Pick Minneota
Wheaton opens with Bethlehem Acadmey in the 3 pm game and BA has a rougher schedule to toughen them up for St. Paul. Pick BA
Climax-Fisher, the surprise team as a #4 seed faces Littlefork-Big Falls in the battle of the North. I am going with CF with momentum, and there losses have been avenged to Ada-Borup and Kittson Central. Their other two losses were to alphabet powers DGF and LOW in 2A.
In the semis Minneota, and BA. with Minneota taking the title.
I was taken to task in A with only 3 right picks in my presection calls. That should give all the out picks today reason to celebrate.

My question: when is seeding going to happen for the state tournament? Soccer and now basketball will seed the tournament. We seed the sections, why not the state? I want the two best teams to see each other on Saturday, not Thursday.

For those of you paying attention to the numbers I have been putting up this year--it is first ball side out % that points to the team that wins more often than not. If FBSO % is .600 or better the record is 16-4. three of those losses were to teams that had a higher fbso %. If your FBSO % is under .487 the overall record is 2-17.

The % of earned and allowed points don't really indicate anything. The top team with earned points % was Kennedy with .818 in their loss to Eden Prairie in the 6AAA semifinals.
What is more important is the raw numbers of points earned and allowed. If a team earns less than 21 points the record is 0-8.
If a team allows less than 16 points the record is 8-2.

These are numbers from the 27 games I have charted this year.

Next up: tomorrow morning with the regular news of the day